1Q09 Outlook: Recovery In Waiting

. 1Q09 is likely to see more turbulence in the markets for “risky assets”

· Expect more bad news surrounding financial institutions and economies

· But credit and money market indicators suggest that the financial crisis may have already peaked

· Equities – which appear technically oversold – could stage a cyclical rebound despite the structural economic problems

· Typically, US equity bear markets trough 3-5 months before the end of US recessions – we expect the US recession to end sometime middle of this year

· But the necessary workouts of the housing, credit and consumer bubbles will take time and are likely to limit the gains from any cyclical stock market rebound

· Commodities have been sold back to the levels of 4-5 years ago and could rebound on a return of risk appetite and an end to the global recession

· Investment grade debt spreads could remain high in the midst of capital scarcity – avoid high yielders as default rates are likely to soar

· USD and Yen are likely to remain supported in 1Q09 on continued financial market jitters, de-leveraging and risk aversion

· But the USD should weaken as risk appetite recovers

· Gold could correct further near-term on USD resilience but is likely to rally when the USD starts to weaken later in the year

Its 2009!

A year had passed, i wish not to look back for it has too many stories to tell
2009 didnt start the way i wanted either & it isnt going exactly as expected i should say. What is in store for the rest of the year is left to be seen.
Like it was said in a movie:
"Life Is Like A Box of Chocolates; You'll Never Know What You Are Going To get".